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Joe Rogan Podcast... first place I would go for facts.

Don't listen to Joe Rogan.  Listen to the infectious disease researcher.  He claims this has played out exactly as he detailed it would.  If this is the case, why wouldn't we be listening to what he has to say going forward?  I'm hoping he's wrong, but the more actions that are taken by the gov't and the more advice we get from the CDC, the more his visions are starting to come to light. 

The Imperial College of London's modeling work that details the predicted results based on our actions is the one most people need to read. 

Here's a little summary of it: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239978293169778688

tl;dr - Buckle up. We're in this for the long term, regardless of action. Doing what we're doing now is the most optimal route to avoid large-scale deaths, especially at higher age ranges.

Joe Rogan Podcast... first place I would go for facts.

That twitter thread is just mashing the current numbers into a model. It doesn't take into account that the WHO estimates the true death rate of the disease to be around 1% (Using South Korea and the Diamond Princess). The reality is the death rate that gets circulated is more the death rate of people with symptoms bad enough to get tested. There's no consensus, but it's very likely 50% or more that get the virus are asymptomatic altogether. Good for the death rate, bad in that they are increasing the spread. 

It also doesn't take into effect that once you recover you have immunity, so his once you leave suppression you're gonna get millions of cases isn't exactly true either. With all the undetected cases, along with the detected cases we'll have, the rate of spread will be significantly lower in 2 months because of all the people with immunity (not even counting warm weather which looks like it also slows the spread).
He also doesn't realize it's simply impractical to lock-down for the better part of 18 months until we get a vaccine, zero percent chance that's gonna happen. 

There also is very positive results across the board from many different countries of an anti-malaria drug being effective in treatment.

My non-scientific but very analytical opinion: The measures taken in the US will continue to climb, especially in the high impact areas. I think the daily cases will peak sometime in early to mid April after all the measures really have taken hold. We'll firmly be on the downslope in mid-may and hospitals won't be as stressed so things start opening back up. By June things will be somewhat back to normal and probably when sporting events will start going again. We'll have the capacity to test/trace where any cases crop to put out the little fires before they grow.

Kingpin----I agree with your prediction 90%.  I think this is not a best or worst case scenario.  I think the key to this is treatment medication.  

That twitter thread is just mashing the current numbers into a model. It doesn't take into account that the WHO estimates the true death rate of the disease to be around 1% (Using South Korea and the Diamond Princess). The reality is the death rate that gets circulated is more the death rate of people with symptoms bad enough to get tested. There's no consensus, but it's very likely 50% or more that get the virus are asymptomatic altogether. Good for the death rate, bad in that they are increasing the spread. 

It also doesn't take into effect that once you recover you have immunity, so his once you leave suppression you're gonna get millions of cases isn't exactly true either. With all the undetected cases, along with the detected cases we'll have, the rate of spread will be significantly lower in 2 months because of all the people with immunity (not even counting warm weather which looks like it also slows the spread).
He also doesn't realize it's simply impractical to lock-down for the better part of 18 months until we get a vaccine, zero percent chance that's gonna happen. 

There also is very positive results across the board from many different countries of an anti-malaria drug being effective in treatment.

My non-scientific but very analytical opinion: The measures taken in the US will continue to climb, especially in the high impact areas. I think the daily cases will peak sometime in early to mid April after all the measures really have taken hold. We'll firmly be on the downslope in mid-may and hospitals won't be as stressed so things start opening back up. By June things will be somewhat back to normal and probably when sporting events will start going again. We'll have the capacity to test/trace where any cases crop to put out the little fires before they grow.

I actually linked the wrong portion, just catching the end instead of the whole thread. Should have just linked the paper as it misleads.

To briefly summarize, the modeling used a 0.9% death rate. There were three outcomes:

1. Do nothing - 80% of US infected, 2.2 million die directly from the disease, another 2.2 million die from lack of medical facilities, including 8-15% of all Americans over 70 years old. Demand for certain equipment far exceeds what is currently available to the US, like ventilators (30x what is currently available would be needed).

2. Mitigation, which would be isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining family members of those people, all Americans over 70 practicing social distancing: 2 million dead with 1.1 million directly from the disease, the remainder from lack of medical faciltiies. Demand on venilators is 8x what is available. 

3. Suppression - which you're starting to see. Again isolate symptomatic cases and quarantining those peoples' families, social distancing among the whole population, and gatherings/sporting events/schools/universities shut down. The death rate drops drastically - peaking three weeks from now in the thousands and then wavers off. The need for ventilators is not exceeded.

It did note that until a vaccine was found, this will continually be a problem and life will be affected as such.

And there absolutely have been cases of reinfection, not sure where you heard that: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0316-cdc-employee-covid-19.html

ahhh..  but you must remember....  a stitch in time saves 9..   add that to the equation.

I actually linked the wrong portion, just catching the end instead of the whole thread. Should have just linked the paper as it misleads.

To briefly summarize, the modeling used a 0.9% death rate. There were three outcomes:

1. Do nothing - 80% of US infected, 2.2 million die directly from the disease, another 2.2 million die from lack of medical facilities, including 8-15% of all Americans over 70 years old. Demand for certain equipment far exceeds what is currently available to the US, like ventilators (30x what is currently available would be needed).

2. Mitigation, which would be isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining family members of those people, all Americans over 70 practicing social distancing: 2 million dead with 1.1 million directly from the disease, the remainder from lack of medical faciltiies. Demand on venilators is 8x what is available. 

3. Suppression - which you're starting to see. Again isolate symptomatic cases and quarantining those peoples' families, social distancing among the whole population, and gatherings/sporting events/schools/universities shut down. The death rate drops drastically - peaking three weeks from now in the thousands and then wavers off. The need for ventilators is not exceeded.

It did note that until a vaccine was found, this will continually be a problem and life will be affected as such.

And there absolutely have been cases of reinfection, not sure where you heard that: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0316-cdc-employee-covid-19.html

And a good thing that it's global is everwhere is testing treatments, doing new studies etc. Chloroquine is the anti-malaria drug that has been getting almost universally positive results across the globe in different studies on those infected. There's another one that was developed for SARS that also shows promise. The good thing about these is they are already FDA approved, so they can be administered now, unlike a vaccine that'll take at least a year. 

You mentioned a best case scenario. I think a best case would be that one of the treatments prove very effective and we can then try to achieve a herd immunity by ramping up testing and catching early cases while going back to a normal world with a good treatment.

Best case scenario would be "the disease disappeared as quickly as it appeared"........as have been heard with other pandemics.  We are not likely to get that here though

Irresponsible is engaging in the sin of this world and not trusting in God.  If we would clean up our act on this planet we wouldn't be in this situation.  I can trust in God to watch over me if I go in public and use common sense.  Just because you dont understand and have so much fear doesn't mean you need to try to push your fear on me.  I will stay home if I am not feeling well in the slightest out of respect but I am not afraid to go and be around others if I am doing well.  If you are then stay home, and do your best to protect your loved ones.

Im not sure what that link is supposed to prove? A CDC employee got the disease so there's reinfection?

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=d9a2758f1deac42c9c2629e5d9c8f0dc1141e673-1584572040-0-AWvzStzW5oMKD7fnnq5ul-FSbZv2rjjlLbcmM4SgUVM1r40WyDXSohBg5y2pDaIvi-LGBtJGiwZqP8-vkuXkUwIeIoti2eS-6Srx2CMrpnTmuPc_Bc0v6PhYzXysOzn2L5GkfAsUMKAnLFdvnGPhgPTb5L4Is_UoQbiRtLY8euoXwvQ6s5PCyxC9AcoxuUPXn5kTwdlmjXhF_owS8-SioQ06ee1CO1mgGSoa-gckKLtVAjUzGU34inJ5KQqryWU23_ACHndC71j2MzreaflY6j_zdx8l1S319UcoiZ_E8HJETgbsyZx--BtB3_GP6ipa_g

There's an actual study on monkeys and they were immune after recovering. Scientist have pretty much come to agreement that the reports of reinfection are likely actually relapse. This is still a viral disease, and like every other one encountered, once you recover you have antibodies and are immune (which is one form of treatment being looked at- using blood from the recovered and their antibodies to treat infected). It's also why some places, notably the UK, have been kicking around a herd immunity strategy.

edit: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs8.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/immunity-after-recovery-from-covid-19-yes-but/509-67f5a550-ac91-4e31-abd7-47e548f1df9e

Theres a dr confirming as well. 

B). I typically agree with your comments on this forum and especially don't like getting involved in politics, but since you brought it up, here's the real story, not the one reported widely by the mainstream media. Trump wasn't referring to the KKK and Neo Nazis. He was referring to the southern heritage folks there to protest the removal of historical civil war statues. Fake news can not only be just what shows up in print, but what doesn't show up in print. Just like the moronic notion that Trump was referring to the corona virus as a hoax. What he was calling a hoax was the weaponazation of the situation by democratic politicians for political purposes. 

Now back to racing info. Port, Lincoln, Williams Grove, Selinsgrove, and BAPS have all cancelled for this weekend.

Do you even have the most rudimentary understanding of how communicable diseases are spread?  Given your post either you don't or you are seriously Self-centered. 

"the southern heritage folks" are glorifying people who took up arms against the American government to maintain slavery. Civil War killed more Americans than all our other wars combined until the Gulf War. Nazi flag & insignias are ILLEGAL in Germany.... I put Confederate symbols in the same category

I'll stop talking politics if you do....

Some people are just clueless.  As far as GOD goes, how has he protected the many that have it and believe?  No thanks.  I'll be my own GOD and not rely on some 'entity'? to help me and save and protect me from this.