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Topic: Racing in 2020--not looking good in most predictions Email this topic to a friend | Subscribe to this TopicReport this Topic to Moderator
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Nick14
April 03, 2020 at 10:46:42 AM
Joined: 06/04/2012
Posts: 1734
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Posted By: StanM on April 03 2020 at 09:54:28 AM

I would probably feel the way you do if racing was a socializing thing for me but I travel alone and an a loner at the track as well.  Spending years standing in the infield with a camera was social distancing before it became a thing.  Aside from a couple minutes of small talk with other photographers and track workers between races there wasn't much interaction.  Nobody from my family goes very often so it's a solo thing and probably one of the reasons I like PPV.  At least when I watch streaming races I get to hang out with the cats in the man cave.  wink



For me, going to the track is one of if not only thing I look forward to. Always have since I was young, not for the socializing thing because generally I keep to myself when I am there as I go for the racing. Only social thing about it is that I go with my son who looks forward to it more than I do. We generally try to find a spot on the front stretch where not too many people are sitting  and might exchange a few Hi Hello's with a few people but generally its just he and I. We do a lot of other things like go to hockey, minor league baseball, and lower level college football games but if those get cancelled it doesn't really effect me. Most often I am perfectly content being in my house or working in the yard. The race track is something I have viewed as a personal vacation for me, the same type of enjoyment as those who go to the beach or to the lake, or on a cruise.

I'm sure once I get older the feeling may go away some. Fortunately I do not have to travel as far as most to go the track currently as most tracks are within a 2hr window for me. Still with this, I veiw the health overall is more important, and I would probably view each cancelled race as a "rain out" really. Usually if one rains out I mumble a couple cuss words under my breath then I am over it because I cannot control weather myself. For now really all I can do race related is watch some of the old dvds I have accumillated over the years. As far as spending time with my son, there is always fishing for now, heading to the river after work today.



StanM
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April 03, 2020 at 03:43:02 PM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5548
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Posted By: Nick14 on April 03 2020 at 10:46:42 AM

For me, going to the track is one of if not only thing I look forward to. Always have since I was young, not for the socializing thing because generally I keep to myself when I am there as I go for the racing. Only social thing about it is that I go with my son who looks forward to it more than I do. We generally try to find a spot on the front stretch where not too many people are sitting  and might exchange a few Hi Hello's with a few people but generally its just he and I. We do a lot of other things like go to hockey, minor league baseball, and lower level college football games but if those get cancelled it doesn't really effect me. Most often I am perfectly content being in my house or working in the yard. The race track is something I have viewed as a personal vacation for me, the same type of enjoyment as those who go to the beach or to the lake, or on a cruise.

I'm sure once I get older the feeling may go away some. Fortunately I do not have to travel as far as most to go the track currently as most tracks are within a 2hr window for me. Still with this, I veiw the health overall is more important, and I would probably view each cancelled race as a "rain out" really. Usually if one rains out I mumble a couple cuss words under my breath then I am over it because I cannot control weather myself. For now really all I can do race related is watch some of the old dvds I have accumillated over the years. As far as spending time with my son, there is always fishing for now, heading to the river after work today.



Sounds like a good deal.  I've got one track 32 miles from home and two others an hour away so driving isn't really an issue.  My son and I talked about going to Eldora this year and meeting his neighbor and some friends but that's probably off now.  Aside from that I'm about 3 hours from Jackson Motorplex and haven't been there since it was the Jackson speedway and about 6 hours to Knoxville.  My son's kids are all at an age where he can't get out on trips like that very often so I kind of lost my travel buddy for a while.  I think a large part of it is that working around the yard all day wipes me out at this age.  I always liked the infield more than the stands but I'm not very good at outrunning spinning cars anymore and don't have a reason to take photos.  That and the pit area was my happy place, I never sit in the stands at the tracks near home that I used to shoot.  I would sit in the stands at Knoxville or Jackson because I'd be with somebody but I don't care to sit alone.  Anyways, back to the original subject of this thread, that might not be an issue this year.


Stan Meissner

Dryslick Willie
April 03, 2020 at 04:10:58 PM
Joined: 12/17/2009
Posts: 2235
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Posted By: Keyboard Jockey on April 03 2020 at 10:22:15 AM

The issue here is that everyone is trying so hard to be first... The first to say there is not going to be any racing, the first to say there is a race in a month everyone plan to be there, the first to say the government sucks and isnt doing anything, the first to say the government is doing everything, the first to say we are all going to die, the first to say the drugs are working... 

The truth of the matter is we dont know, and in today's information age we dont like that. 

For your own health and safety be OK with the answer I dont know for a short period of time and ride out the storm. Anxiety will kill people during this time. 



Exactly!   I saw a YouTube video last night of some guy, a doctor of course, who was some kind of big wig in the medical department at Texas A&M.   He said that if anyone claimed knowledge of how this thing was going to or when it would end to be very skeptical, because they're selling you a bill of goods.   He said they don't know and nobody really knows.  




ginelmore
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April 03, 2020 at 04:50:44 PM
Joined: 05/09/2008
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This message was edited on April 03, 2020 at 04:52:05 PM by ginelmore

Just had WCCO radio (Minneapolis) on today 4-3 they had Dr Michael Osterholm on who is a straight shooter and doesn't sugar coat thing and he said coronavirus will last for 12 to 18 months from now well infect at least 50% or more of the population of the U.S well kill at least 1.6 million people in the U.S right now this is the best case scenario he says he's not Republican he's not Democrat he's just telling it like it is       Glen Murra



Hooper31
April 03, 2020 at 05:33:27 PM
Joined: 09/03/2017
Posts: 364
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Posted By: Keyboard Jockey on April 03 2020 at 10:22:15 AM

The issue here is that everyone is trying so hard to be first... The first to say there is not going to be any racing, the first to say there is a race in a month everyone plan to be there, the first to say the government sucks and isnt doing anything, the first to say the government is doing everything, the first to say we are all going to die, the first to say the drugs are working... 

The truth of the matter is we dont know, and in today's information age we dont like that. 

For your own health and safety be OK with the answer I dont know for a short period of time and ride out the storm. Anxiety will kill people during this time. 



How dare you share a nuianced intelligent perspective? I'll have you know this is the Intergoogle. Hyperbole or nothing. Thank you. Carry on. 



saphead
April 03, 2020 at 08:28:07 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1163
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Hello fellow introverts, I'm a loner at the track as well, that is if my family doesn't come along. Before I was married I drove 8 hors to Williams Grove for the National Open and the only person I spoke to the entire trip was the girl working the counter at the MacIntosh Inn in Harrisburg. It was f-ing glorious. 

OK back to CV talk. 

 




egras
April 03, 2020 at 09:40:31 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3913
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Posted By: Dryslick Willie on April 02 2020 at 04:49:14 PM

Absolutely!  I'm a fan of the "burn out/fizzle out" theory.    I've got a cruise scheduled for May 29th, so there's going to have to be a ton of "fizzling" before than can happen.   Luckily I got the travel insurance, and if Royal Caribbean cancels it then I'll probably wind up with 150% credit towards a future cruise.   So my main hope right now is that the Nationals happen in August and then I take a much nicer cruise in 2021.   



I know someone who had their cruise canceled.  They were refunded the entire cost of the cruise, airfare to the coast, and then given full credit for a future cruise.  It was like a 200% refund.  

 

WIth you on Knoxville--------that is really the only event of the entire summer I can't live without!!  (I will obviously if need be)



Dryslick Willie
April 03, 2020 at 09:45:48 PM
Joined: 12/17/2009
Posts: 2235
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Posted By: ginelmore on April 03 2020 at 04:50:44 PM

Just had WCCO radio (Minneapolis) on today 4-3 they had Dr Michael Osterholm on who is a straight shooter and doesn't sugar coat thing and he said coronavirus will last for 12 to 18 months from now well infect at least 50% or more of the population of the U.S well kill at least 1.6 million people in the U.S right now this is the best case scenario he says he's not Republican he's not Democrat he's just telling it like it is       Glen Murra



And of course straight shooters who don't sugar coat anything absolutely never get anything wrong  ;-)



Sprintcar
April 03, 2020 at 09:49:36 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 35
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Posted By: turn4guy on April 02 2020 at 11:57:58 PM

So I know these are unprecedented times and I'm pretty sure a Knoxville Nationals has never been canceled or even rescheduled. So hypothetically let's say Knoxville cancels. How do you think they'd handle the refunds on tickets already purchased? (I bought 12 of em). It'd be cool if they let us use them for 2021. If it gets pushed back to the fall then I cant go anyway and would have to sell. 

** I have to come back in here and edit this before I get lit up for being dumb....I bought the tickets the week they went on sale. About a week before this covid19 shit even came out into public eye. So don't be mean. And stay clean.



Knoxville Raceway Ticket Policy
   
   
As of now, there are no plans to cancel any of the events that tickets are currently available for. These include:
 
  • Brownells Big Guns Bash with the World of Outlaws NOS Energy Drink Sprint Car Series - June 12 & 13
  • BRANDT Professional Agriculture Corn Belt Nationals - July 10 & 11
  • Marion County Fair Concert - July 17
  • My Place Hotels 360 Knoxville Nationals presented by Great Southern Bank - August 6-8
  • Capitani Classic presented by Great Southern Bank - August 9
  • NOS Energy Drink Knoxville Nationals presented by Casey's - August 12-15
  • Lucas Oil Late Model Nationals - September 17-19
 
If any of these events were to be canceled due to Coronavirus, there are three options for ticket holders: roll your tickets to the corresponding 2021 event and keep your same seats; use the value of your tickets toward any other ticket purchase in 2020 or 2021; or request a refund (getting the same seats for the 2021 corresponding event cannot be guaranteed).
 
If you have questions about camping, season tickets, and more, please call the ticket office at 641-842-5431.



egras
April 03, 2020 at 09:51:50 PM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3913
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Posted By: Kingpin2014 on April 02 2020 at 05:23:19 PM

The problem we have is this is a novel virus, and we don't have good information/data so anybody making predictions is really just taking a stab in the dark at this point. We absolutely need to do large scale serological testing to see the scale of infections we missed and there's 3 scenarios in my opinion depending on the results:

1- We discover that we've only captured a tiny percentage of cases, millions of asymptomatic and mild infections were missed. This would indicate the biggest issue with the virus is it's spreading, as the death and hospital rates of actual infections be pretty low (but due to sheer volume still high numbers). This happened with swine flu when afterwards it was discovered about 25% of the world population had it. This would mean we'd be well on our way to herd immunity (which needs about 50-60% of the population to be immune) and it'd switch more to a logistical issue than a public health one- as in making sure we can sufficiently raise our hospital capacity and produce equipment needed. In this scenario I think we'd be racing by mid-summer. Imperial college (who had the initial report that caused everything to shut down a few days ago had one that estimated Italy and Spain to possibly have 15% of their population infected, would need that to be true here).
 

2- We discover that we have actually caught a majority of the cases. This would mean the virus isn't as contagious as thought now, and with suppression measures we could eradicate the virus and be back to normal by mid-summer.

 

3- We discover we've missed a decent chunk of cases, but not that many. Say the current totals are 40-90 percent of the actual infections. This would mean we aren't nearly close enough for any kind of herd immunity but the virus is too contagious to suppress into eradication. This one is the toughest to navigate. We'd certainly have more regional aspect (as in states open up more the less infections etc) and whether we can go racing would truly be up in the air with a lot of variables (seasonality, efficacy of current drugs, etc).

 

3 unfortunately is the most likely outcome, with 1 then 2. In the scenario of 3 we'd be in limbo pretty much until a vaccine can come along and that will be at best a year from now. 
 

A caveat of all this is the virus potentially mutating. Most people assume mutate is bad but it's not. Virus's replicate a lot and there's often mistakes (mutation) but they usually don't change how it works. The next most likely outcome is a deletion-good for us. There's also evolutionary pressure on a virus to evolve to be less lethal to its hosts so they can continue on forever, like the flu.



I don't disagree with any of this----good stuff Kingpin.  I agree with you that number 3 seems most likely.  I know they are trying to get some antibody testing going to see how many cases we've missed worldwide.  However, the WHO said part way through the China outbreak that there were not huge numbers  of uncounted cases.  When I say huge numbers, I mean factors of 100 or anything like that.   I guess they had some reason to say this.  ????   By examining the Diamond Princess, they said they had 73% of the positive passengers with no symptoms.  So, its easy to just multiply by 4 and say that's our number.  However, when hot spots in the US started telling people with mild to moderate symptoms to stay home and not report to the hospital unless they worsened, do we maybe have 10 times as many cases as 300,000?  20 times?  50?  

Even at 20 times as many, that's only 6,000,000 people out of 327,000,000.  We got a long ways to go in that scenario.

 

I feel like being hopeful tonight-----let's go with option 1 or 2.  I like those better.  Smile

 

Mutation, like you said, can also change everything.  A mutation into a milder virus over the summer and into the fall would help this thing fade into the sunset.  But, that is something that is only looked back on and cannot be predicted as you eluded to.  I 

 

 



larsonfan
April 03, 2020 at 10:06:43 PM
Joined: 03/24/2013
Posts: 1445
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Posted By: ginelmore on April 03 2020 at 04:50:44 PM

Just had WCCO radio (Minneapolis) on today 4-3 they had Dr Michael Osterholm on who is a straight shooter and doesn't sugar coat thing and he said coronavirus will last for 12 to 18 months from now well infect at least 50% or more of the population of the U.S well kill at least 1.6 million people in the U.S right now this is the best case scenario he says he's not Republican he's not Democrat he's just telling it like it is       Glen Murra



Never heard of him, but I have to wonder that as a supposed doctor, he has no confidence that effective treatments (sounds like there are already some promising ones being tested), and more importantly, an effective vaccination.....will not be developed the next 12 - 18 months?

I have absolutely no qualifications to prove/disprove anything, and I will not bury my head in the sand either. All I have is my faith and hope that a prediction like this (which is the most dire I've heard of) is wrong.



hardon
April 04, 2020 at 03:25:45 AM
Joined: 02/20/2005
Posts: 485
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I have no idea or opinions about what will happen with the virus or how many people it affects or how many it kills or how long it takes to run it's coarse.  But my opinion is this, there will be no dirt racing in 2020.  My thoughts are that the first sport to return will be NASCAR run with no fans in the stands for the remainder of the year.  I think the next sport to return will be the NFL again in empty stadiums until 2021.  The reason I think these sports will return first is because of the lucrative TV deals they have, they can "survive" without running in front of fans or gate money.  Can dirt racing of any kind survive without fans at the track?  I'm speaking financially obviously.  My opinion is no but I've been wrong before and would be glad to be wrong again but I don't think it will happen.  

I guess I'm a little more optomistic about the economy than most.  I do think there will be some big dips or valleys and I don't think much unnecessary money is being spent right now but I think it will very quickly rebound.  I think the stimulus packages are looking good.  I'm just speaking for myself here but so far I don't see any financial impact for us.  I'm still working (I work for an internet company, from what I'm told, we'll always be essential), my wife is self employed and can't work right now, at some point she will be receiving unemployment, whatever that number is per week and she's still doing some side work but it costs her a lot of money to go to work, which is being saved now.  We can't eat out, there's no place to drive to, and we're only running to Wal Mart when it's necessary, so no trips there just to get out of the house which always seem to cost at least $50 lol.  It's also a lot cheaper for me to work right now too, I can't eat out for lunch, with the current situation I'm saving a lot of money on gas and getting some overtime.  At some point we have a check coming for $3,400.  With the current situation we are able to survive on just me working.  This is before the stimulus packages.  We also delayed all of our payments that we could, house payment, car payment, utility payments, We are still making the payments but now we're only paying principal.  We were planning on either remodeling our house or buying a new one, those plans are still there but just on hold, for how long?  We don't know but we will be spending money at some point.  So right now I would think we would be in a "recession" but I see a big economic boom coming when this is all said and done.  I'm speaking just on our situation and I'm hoping lots of other people are just putting their money in the bank.  I'm also hearing of lots of good loans and packages for businesses.




turn4guy
April 04, 2020 at 03:54:39 AM
Joined: 04/23/2015
Posts: 881
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This message was edited on April 04, 2020 at 04:03:35 AM by turn4guy
Reply to:
Posted By: Sprintcar on April 03 2020 at 09:49:36 PM
Knoxville Raceway Ticket Policy
   
   
As of now, there are no plans to cancel any of the events that tickets are currently available for. These include:
 
  • Brownells Big Guns Bash with the World of Outlaws NOS Energy Drink Sprint Car Series - June 12 & 13
  • BRANDT Professional Agriculture Corn Belt Nationals - July 10 & 11
  • Marion County Fair Concert - July 17
  • My Place Hotels 360 Knoxville Nationals presented by Great Southern Bank - August 6-8
  • Capitani Classic presented by Great Southern Bank - August 9
  • NOS Energy Drink Knoxville Nationals presented by Casey's - August 12-15
  • Lucas Oil Late Model Nationals - September 17-19
 
If any of these events were to be canceled due to Coronavirus, there are three options for ticket holders: roll your tickets to the corresponding 2021 event and keep your same seats; use the value of your tickets toward any other ticket purchase in 2020 or 2021; or request a refund (getting the same seats for the 2021 corresponding event cannot be guaranteed).
 
If you have questions about camping, season tickets, and more, please call the ticket office at 641-842-5431.


Awesome. Thanks for the post. 



egras
April 04, 2020 at 07:14:16 AM
Joined: 08/16/2009
Posts: 3913
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Posted By: ginelmore on April 03 2020 at 04:50:44 PM

Just had WCCO radio (Minneapolis) on today 4-3 they had Dr Michael Osterholm on who is a straight shooter and doesn't sugar coat thing and he said coronavirus will last for 12 to 18 months from now well infect at least 50% or more of the population of the U.S well kill at least 1.6 million people in the U.S right now this is the best case scenario he says he's not Republican he's not Democrat he's just telling it like it is       Glen Murra



This is not realistic.  This Dr. is assuming we have counted 37-38% of the cases----according to my math from the numbers reported today.  I think it is highly likely we have only counted 10-20% of the actual cases.  There are 10's of thousands of cases in the early stages of the breakout when testing was not even available---and those uncounted cases turned in to 10's of thousands of additional uncounted cases.  Most urban areas, 1-2 weeks into their breakouts were telling people with mild-moderate symptoms to stay home and not come in unless symptoms took a turn for the worse.  They did not get counted.  

Would it be unreasonable to say New York has 500,000-1,000,000 infections right now? More?  I don't think it would be.  We will have a better idea soon once we start testing for antibodies.  

All this doctor did was mutliply 327,000,000 x 50% x 1%. 



StanM
MyResults MyPressRelease
April 04, 2020 at 08:28:30 AM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5548
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Posted By: larsonfan on April 03 2020 at 10:06:43 PM

Never heard of him, but I have to wonder that as a supposed doctor, he has no confidence that effective treatments (sounds like there are already some promising ones being tested), and more importantly, an effective vaccination.....will not be developed the next 12 - 18 months?

I have absolutely no qualifications to prove/disprove anything, and I will not bury my head in the sand either. All I have is my faith and hope that a prediction like this (which is the most dire I've heard of) is wrong.



He is an excellent source of information and is a U of M researcher who worked at the site of other pandemics.  It's worth giving him a listen as he is one of the leading authorities on pandemics.  He is much more than another doctor with an opinion.  


Stan Meissner


StanM
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April 04, 2020 at 08:32:48 AM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5548
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Posted By: ginelmore on April 03 2020 at 04:50:44 PM

Just had WCCO radio (Minneapolis) on today 4-3 they had Dr Michael Osterholm on who is a straight shooter and doesn't sugar coat thing and he said coronavirus will last for 12 to 18 months from now well infect at least 50% or more of the population of the U.S well kill at least 1.6 million people in the U.S right now this is the best case scenario he says he's not Republican he's not Democrat he's just telling it like it is       Glen Murra



Excellent source of information.  I watched his interviews with Joe Rogan and listened to him on one of the KFAN podcasts.  WCCO, wow, it's been a while since I listened to that station.  I used to listen to "going home with Canon" on CCO back in the 80's.  Does Ma Linger and Morgan Mundane sound familiar?  Canon had a crazy sense of humor.  wink


Stan Meissner

ginelmore
MyWebsite
April 04, 2020 at 05:54:07 PM
Joined: 05/09/2008
Posts: 513
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Thanks Stan for helping me make these people understand who Michael Osterholm is. He is not just a doctor. While I'm the first one to hope his predictions are wrong, he has been right on the money with his predictions so far. He is definitely someone people need to listen to. I just happened to catch him on WCCO (which I don't listen to much any more) the other day, WCCO has not been the same since Cannon, Ma, Morgan and Backlash retired. If we should get races in this year and you decide to come down to Jackson Motorplex and are looking for someone to sit with I am usually sitting with Bill Blomster and the gang from the State Bank of Fairmont. In front of their suite just to the right of the flag stand as you look at the track. Glen Murra



StanM
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April 05, 2020 at 06:09:16 PM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5548
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Posted By: ginelmore on April 04 2020 at 05:54:07 PM

Thanks Stan for helping me make these people understand who Michael Osterholm is. He is not just a doctor. While I'm the first one to hope his predictions are wrong, he has been right on the money with his predictions so far. He is definitely someone people need to listen to. I just happened to catch him on WCCO (which I don't listen to much any more) the other day, WCCO has not been the same since Cannon, Ma, Morgan and Backlash retired. If we should get races in this year and you decide to come down to Jackson Motorplex and are looking for someone to sit with I am usually sitting with Bill Blomster and the gang from the State Bank of Fairmont. In front of their suite just to the right of the flag stand as you look at the track. Glen Murra



Thanks Glen.  Your name rings a bell but I met so many people when I had my Minnesota Dirt Track Racing website and was chasing races and writing I can't keep them all straight.  It seems like we either met or exchanged emails or maybe were friends on social media.  I need to get down there.  I went there a few times every year when it was Jackson Speedway but haven't been back since it became the Motorplex.  I got to know the track manager Doug Johnson when I was taking photos and know a few other regulars as well so it is on my bucket list to get down there.  I'm not doing much traveling and now this virus thing will probably take a big slice out of the 2020 season.  


Stan Meissner


Kingpin2014
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April 09, 2020 at 01:52:49 PM
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Posted By: Kingpin2014 on April 02 2020 at 05:23:19 PM

The problem we have is this is a novel virus, and we don't have good information/data so anybody making predictions is really just taking a stab in the dark at this point. We absolutely need to do large scale serological testing to see the scale of infections we missed and there's 3 scenarios in my opinion depending on the results:

1- We discover that we've only captured a tiny percentage of cases, millions of asymptomatic and mild infections were missed. This would indicate the biggest issue with the virus is it's spreading, as the death and hospital rates of actual infections be pretty low (but due to sheer volume still high numbers). This happened with swine flu when afterwards it was discovered about 25% of the world population had it. This would mean we'd be well on our way to herd immunity (which needs about 50-60% of the population to be immune) and it'd switch more to a logistical issue than a public health one- as in making sure we can sufficiently raise our hospital capacity and produce equipment needed. In this scenario I think we'd be racing by mid-summer. Imperial college (who had the initial report that caused everything to shut down a few days ago had one that estimated Italy and Spain to possibly have 15% of their population infected, would need that to be true here).
 

2- We discover that we have actually caught a majority of the cases. This would mean the virus isn't as contagious as thought now, and with suppression measures we could eradicate the virus and be back to normal by mid-summer.

 

3- We discover we've missed a decent chunk of cases, but not that many. Say the current totals are 40-90 percent of the actual infections. This would mean we aren't nearly close enough for any kind of herd immunity but the virus is too contagious to suppress into eradication. This one is the toughest to navigate. We'd certainly have more regional aspect (as in states open up more the less infections etc) and whether we can go racing would truly be up in the air with a lot of variables (seasonality, efficacy of current drugs, etc).

 

3 unfortunately is the most likely outcome, with 1 then 2. In the scenario of 3 we'd be in limbo pretty much until a vaccine can come along and that will be at best a year from now. 
 

A caveat of all this is the virus potentially mutating. Most people assume mutate is bad but it's not. Virus's replicate a lot and there's often mistakes (mutation) but they usually don't change how it works. The next most likely outcome is a deletion-good for us. There's also evolutionary pressure on a virus to evolve to be less lethal to its hosts so they can continue on forever, like the flu.



So in the last 24 hours we have started to get some serological results that have pointed heavily towards 1, which is a good thing. The first being Germany did a random serological sample of one of the towns that was/has been a hot spot of new cases. 2% of the population had been confirmed infected by the testing and counted, but the serological sample discovered 15% had covid antibodies- meaning they were infected, recovered, and immune. The scientist using these numbers are estimating an infection mortality rate of 0.37% (and noted that being conservative- meaning it could very well be lower). So for hot spots like nyc, who currently have had only 84k confirmed cases (0.9% population), it would mean they actually have well over a million. https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf

Another study that surfaced that would support this, comes to the conclusion that the virus was spreading in the community of nyc in late January (the first case wasn't discovered until late February). https://www.mountsinai.org/about/newsroom/2020/mount-sinai-study-finds-first-cases-of-covid-19-in-new-york-city-are-primarily-from-european-and-us-sources-pr

 

Lastly, Denmark ran a random sample of blood donations and discovered 3.5% had antibodies for covid. Obviously hot spots are likely higher, but this is a good mark for an overall sample. Denmark scientist using these numbers are estimating the real number of cases are 30X-80X higher than what is caught. https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999

 

Now you may ask why this is good news. 1 it means the death rate is much much lower (think about possibly only slightly more deadly than influenza). 2 it means we are a lot closer to some form of herd immunity that most would've thought. For complete herd immunity we'd need about 60% of the population to get it, however once you start getting above 10% you start getting very noticeable results in the reduction of the spread because there's significantly less routes for the virus to go.

 

Not time for a celebratory victory lap yet, but very good news. Stanford I think is doing a large serological test in the US and that'll be interesting to watch. If more surveys start to pile up that theres magnitudes of undetected cases, it'll invariably change our strategies and get us to the other side much faster



StanM
MyResults MyPressRelease
April 09, 2020 at 06:12:54 PM
Joined: 11/07/2006
Posts: 5548
Reply

It wasn't a Sprint Car track but Buffalo River Race Park up by Fargo/Moorhead announced that they have cancelled their 2020 season.  A former Sprint Car drive Rik Sandberg who used to be a co-owner replied to my shared article and expressed his concern that they will be able to weather the storm and open next season.  That is the first one in my area that has cancelled for this summer.  


Stan Meissner



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