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Write off 2020 and start making plans for next year.

https://twitter.com/MontyBoa99/status/1244129537199349768?s=20

Member of this message board since 1997

2020 Indianapolis 500 will be at 10:00 AM on Sunday, August 23 this year. Maybe?

Rod

May 1 isn't gonna happen. June 1 depending on where in the country is certainly possible though. So we gotta keep a few things in focus here. First being the US cases, everyone is freaking out about this huge rise and the virus spreading but the reality is it's been here, we're just now starting to test at a decent capacity. To put in perspective, last weekend the US had done a cumulative of 179k tests, yesterday alone we did 109k. Test more, you're going to find more which is why the number of "new" cases is shooting up. 
 

The next thing is the reason for the lockdowns and cancellation of events is not necessarily the virus itself, but to protect our health care system from being overwhelmed. The virus itself with proper medical care available really isn't that bad in the whole (comparative to what numbers are out now in places like Italy) especially if you're under 65. The current death rate is a product of inadequate number of testing available in a lot of countries, who are then only testing the more severe cases (like Italy for example and also the US). Germany is a good example of a place that's done relatively well in testing and their death rate is 0.7, but they are still are almost certainly missing a decent percentage of infections. 

With all that said, we can't stay in lockdowns for months on end, it's not feasible. Right now we're in them to mitigate this initial wave that's here to try to prevent our health systems from collapsing. Once we weather this surge (just saw a new report that most places with peak mid-April) and get our footing in hospitals, we'll likely be going to a targeted response. Things will open back up and return to somewhat normalcy, but there will be extensive testing, contact tracing, quarantines etc and if an area starts to show signs of an outbreak they'll quickly put measures back on (but it'll be targeted, so if philly starts to show signs of a resurgence that area will get limited but Pittsburgh on the other side of PA can carry on). There may still be bans on very large gatherings, especially those indoors (think nba or nhl games of 15-20k), but dirt tracks that are outside (UV rays kill the virus, plus there's been a couple scientific studies done that indicate warmer weather+humidity may slow the spread a bit) with much smaller attendance, and are more spread out pose magnitudes lower of a threat to an outbreak.

I hate to be negative but this is going to be the summer with no racing maybe in the fall we might get a few in but i'm afraid that's it 

Bingo Kingpin.  

There are 2 incorrect ideas floating around out there from opposite sides of the spectrum:

1.  Once we go through this isolation/social-distancing period we will beat this and can go on like normal and the virus will disappear.

2.  We can't return to normal without this virus being completely gone

As you said Kingpin, life will be going back to "normal" as soon as we slow this down, prep our hospitals, and the warmer weather can at the very least, put a dent in the transmission rate.  This thing is still going to spread.  It's still going to kill a little less than 1% of those getting it.  And, we are going to have to go on while this happens.  We are not going to beat this by summer.  We are going to hope to curb it by summer so we can return to normal. 

Anyone that thinks we are beating this completely by summer or that we are going to be in quarantine for 12 months is really at the opposite sides of reality.  

Yeah this virus isn't disappearing barring a miracle (though scientists in Singapore have started to see signs of deletion of a certain area of the virus as it evolves, the same deletion that occurred in original SARS that caused it to burn out). And also a vaccine won't be coming for at least a year likely longer. So we're likely going to have to just live with it and try to control it as it burns through the population and we gain herd immunity. We also need serological testing done ASAP to see how widespread and how many infections we missed that have already recovered.

Unfortunately, this is gonna get worse and we aren't gonna see any racing for quite a while.

Indy 500 set back from Memorial Day weekend to late August should tell us something.

I'll be shocked if I see a race before July.

Prediction: If racing doesn't start until July or later and the Knoxville Nationals runs on its normal August dates, it will have record car counts as some 410 teams will have not run 5 shows by then and record crowds as many fans will be suffering from "cabin fever"

The worst president of my lifetime:
Ronald Reagan

The Indy 500 is a different animal compared to your local short track which can just open up on a few days/a week notice plus the obvious difference in magnitude of crowd size. Indy did the safest play they could do (latest weekend in the summer with no football).

Knoxville just cancelled its April 18 and 25 racing dates and will plan to start racing on May 2. And Jackson Motorplex moved their starting date back to May 20.

Just curious where you saw that about Singapore.  Can you share a link.  Wouldn't that be a freaking miracle!? 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1.full.pdf

There's the study. It absolutely would be a miracle. I guess the potential reasoning for the deletion is it's the place where the human anti-bodies attack, so it makes sense for the virus to mutate to defend against that.

I wish I had the link but there was a study in a European country that observed the virus getting weaker the farther down an infection chain it went. 

Of course they're both just something hopeful to keep an eye on to hopefully start seeing more widespread.

Its assumed that this virus will decrease in the warmer weather but that isn't a slam dunk.  The infectious disease expert from the U of M mentioned that in a couple interviews.  One of the other outbreaks involving a coronavirus jumped from camels to humans in the middle East.  He was at ground zero working with world health officials and said that virus thrived in 110 degrees.  Some politicians were pushing the idea this new virus would fade in the heat of summer but there's no evidence to back that theory up until they can see how it reacts to the hot weather.

Stan Meissner

PS,.this season when and if it does get underway may be remembered as that year everyone had to have their temperature monitored at the gate.  One thing some of the more rustic tracks will have to address is those damn porta John's.  Same thing with the outdoor rock concerts.  I'm going on 69 and the last thing I would want to do is go anywhere near puking drunks and porta John's.  A large part of the fan base including myself sports gray hair and are in the most vulnerable age group.  I like Sprint Car racing but not enough to put myself at risk.  The virus will have to be long gone before I go anywhere near a dirt track with cobbled together bathrooms that are virus breeding grounds.  

Stan Meissner

I do not want to be doom and gloom.  But I would honestly think twice about sitting in the stands for 4 nights at the Nationals with 15,000 other people unless things are alot better than they are now.

Interesting read.  I know it's a different virus strain, but I remember the same loss of potency by the Swine Flu as well.  It was said it was FAR more deadly at the epicenter and lost its punch as it spread down the chain.  

Stan has some good points as well.  I don't think the disease experts actually want this virus to stop spreading in the summer.  We need to keep this virus spreading at a low-moderate rate so a percentage of the population can get immunity.  That is the only way to keep from a huge spike in the fall-winter months.  Ideally, it would be good for 20-30% of the population to get this virus over the summer months.  I know that's not what everyone thinks the scientists are trying to accomplish, but they just haven't said it out loud yet.  

PorchePete is also correct---may be tough to sit in the stands at Knoxville for 4 days with this still spreading.  However, should the event be held, and the transmission rate is low, I will attend.  I wouldn't recommend those in the high-risk groups attending though.  That's what sucks.  

I plan on being at the Kings Royal July 18th!!

I'm keeping my July/August plans as well with fingers crossed

I think best case is June but that's looking more and more unlikely. The good thing about dirt tracks is they don't need the set up time that a big event like Indy 500 needs. So maybe we're in better shape in 30 days followed by  a month of making sure this thing doesn't survive in warm weather and we can start up again. But things are going to get uglier before they get better that's for sure. 

Not anytime soon with death rates doing nothing but going up and up fast.

USA, the first nation to reach 1000+ deaths in one day

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

They go by GMT, so it resets at 00:00 GMT(I think that's 5 pm PDT) Wonder what its going to be in a week or two.

Rod

I would not even consider it. I'm the primary caregiver for my 90-year-old father. If I catch the stuff, I would very likely transmit it to him. Even if I got through the disease, there is no way he would survive. 

Many other people in situations similar to mine.