Forum: HoseHeads Sprint Car General Forum (go)
Moderators: dirtonly  /  dmantx  /  hosehead

Haaaaaaaaaahahaha!

Going with Brown as my dark horse, he has that place licked on regular Saturday night shows. Then again, those are regular Saturday night shows....

There are way too many drivers in this thread being given even a snowball's chance of winning. Every year, dozens of names are mentioned as being threats to win, and the picks always seem like Charlie Brown expecting to actually kick the football this time. Donny Schatz has 10 wins and two seconds the last 12 years.

Once you get past the top half dozen Outlaws and Larson, the chances go down real quick.

I enjoyed the effort you made and enjoyed reading it, but your odds are way too low for just about everyone beyond the first few picks. Jacob Allen at 20-1 to win the Nationals? He has never even an Outlaw race and was not even competitive racing locally.

I would put the odds like this:   (just for fun--as an example)

Schatz     2-3

Larson     4-1

Gravel      4-1

Sweet       5-1

Brown       7-1

Shane       10-1

K. Madsen   12-1

Pittman        15-1

My darkhorse pick:

Reutzel       30-1   (based solely off of last years charge to the front)

I'm trying to make a profit at my book, not go broke when someone stuns the world at 100-1. 

In reality, I'd agree that some of these are probably way too low. I guess I placed them more relatively on a fixed scale than trying to determine true odds. Jacob has been OK at times at Knoxville, he put it in the dash Saturday of the WoO show, but I know that's a whole different animal.

To echo another poster's sentiment, I think you could probably handicap 7-8 cars and then give a big time field bet and be OK. 

Another vote for Reutzel ...

all comes down to who has the best 2 laps

My prediction is that one of these years Schatz is going to have a run of bad luck and somebody else will win it.  I further predict that he will come back so focussed and determined after losing one that he will peel off about five more in a row.  That's just where we are in the stream of time right now, on a Schatz roll with no end in sight.  The only thing that will stop it is old age or Donny deciding he's done everything there is to do in Sprints and him riding off into the sunset to run his business interests and play around with the Late Model.

Stan Meissner

I gotta go with Brian Brown, and Rico Abreu, If Lance Dewease is there I'd go with him as well.

This was exactly the stuff I wanted to see when I started this post, thanks everybody!  Love the picks and odds and all that.  It'd be fun to revisit this at the end of Thursday night when the top 16 are locked in!    I'd love to see anybody shock the world this year.  #15 is absolutely great and so very hard to beat, but who doesn't love a good upset?!  Makes for a much better story IMO.  

Would Larson be considered a sleeper? He could do it..

If Dewease shows up, thats a surprise already, but if so, he's got a chance!

How bout Brad sweet?

going out on a limb here and just gonna say it WILL be a CALI driver that wins the NATS this year.....take your pic 57,41,49,24R,83,71,41,29,3,68,25....

“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science 
gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.” 

Brett Marks

"You will never know it was your "Day" until it's over"

Is that Brent's brother?   

Shouldn't this post be titled "Who's going to win the Nationals besides Schatz?" because everyone is a Darkhorse as long as Schatz is entered.

Good point ....

Whats all this Schatz talk? He's not even entered yet...

Clearly a chicken hearted cherry picker

Yes, but that is The Grove... Posse doesn't normally do anything outside of PA. They run the same tracks all the time.

The Crowd Pleaser IS THE BEST ever!

Over the last several years there have been probably three dozen drivers mentioned (if not more).....what the hecks the difference in having a couple dozen more?  Besides, a couple times out of a dozen years, someone gets it right.