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Topic: Method For Calculating A Winged 410 National Champion Email this topic to a friend | Subscribe to this TopicReport this Topic to Moderator
Page 2 of 3   of  42 replies
blazer00
April 10, 2018 at 02:51:43 PM
Joined: 06/10/2015
Posts: 2420
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This message was edited on April 10, 2018 at 02:54:04 PM by blazer00
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Posted By: kevintoribert on April 10 2018 at 10:01:22 AM

I'm using a ton of math behind the scenes to determine the rankings. If an All Star won a WoO race (Aaron Reutzel) and did not travel with the WoO, and that driver won a ton of All Star races, then that driver (because he or she is really talented) is going to be compared favorably to a WoO driver because when he ran with the WoO he beat all of the WoO drivers).

Here is a simple example of what happens: https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/p/what-is-national-sprint-car-championship.html

Beacuse of the way the math is determined, if Bill Balog won a WoO race at Beaver Dam and Wilmot and finished 5th at the Knoxville Nationals, his "KPI" would be very similar to Donny Schatz even though he didn't travel with the WoO ... because on the dates when he raced against Donny Schatz his average finish would be (1 + 1 + 5)/3 = 2.333, better than almost all of the WoO drivers.

A PA driver would race three times against the All Stars and three times against the WoO drivers and if she/he performed well, she/he could win the title in my framework, because in the six races she/he ran against the two touring series she/he outperformed those in the touring series.

The points help rank drivers ... and then I am comparing the relative strength of each driver against each other when they races together ... even if it is only 2-3 times for the whole year. As a result, you get a ranking. 

Notice that Chad Kemenah is currently third in the standings ... because of what he did in Florida, he gets a high ranking even though he does not travel with the WoO.



You are kidding, right! All you are doing is manipulating math and circumstance to reach a fabricated end. What you're proposing is rewarding the blind squirrel for finding a nut! Your math fails to penalize (Balog) for losing to a lesser class of cars week in and week out. His penalty would be more than (Schatz) for example who loses to the best when he loses. Same can be said right now for your ranking of Kemenah. The one and only..... The Granddaddy of Them All, the Knoxville Nationals crowns the National Champion every year. All other champions are champions of tracks or series, or just winners of other prominant races. PERIOD! Like Murphy stated.....maybe one big Super Bowl like race centrally located, like in southern Iowa.Smile 



revjimk
April 10, 2018 at 03:26:18 PM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7607
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Posted By: StanM on April 10 2018 at 12:18:25 PM

Thanks for the effort but it doesn't take a formula to know that Schatz is still the man everyone else is chasing in 2018.  



Bingo!



revjimk
April 10, 2018 at 03:27:14 PM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7607
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Posted By: Murphy on April 10 2018 at 12:54:46 PM

     There's too much apples and oranges to be comparing here that it's hard to make it seem like a fair comparison. Maybe what's needed is something like a super bowl of sprint car racing to decide who is the best racer? I could forsee having a big race to determine who is on top. Perhaps somewhere centrally located, like in southern Iowa?



Double Bingo! (plus 1 for sarcasm) wink

 




revjimk
April 10, 2018 at 03:32:04 PM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7607
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Reply to:
Posted By: kevintoribert on April 10 2018 at 10:01:22 AM

I'm using a ton of math behind the scenes to determine the rankings. If an All Star won a WoO race (Aaron Reutzel) and did not travel with the WoO, and that driver won a ton of All Star races, then that driver (because he or she is really talented) is going to be compared favorably to a WoO driver because when he ran with the WoO he beat all of the WoO drivers).

Here is a simple example of what happens: https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/p/what-is-national-sprint-car-championship.html

Beacuse of the way the math is determined, if Bill Balog won a WoO race at Beaver Dam and Wilmot and finished 5th at the Knoxville Nationals, his "KPI" would be very similar to Donny Schatz even though he didn't travel with the WoO ... because on the dates when he raced against Donny Schatz his average finish would be (1 + 1 + 5)/3 = 2.333, better than almost all of the WoO drivers.

A PA driver would race three times against the All Stars and three times against the WoO drivers and if she/he performed well, she/he could win the title in my framework, because in the six races she/he ran against the two touring series she/he outperformed those in the touring series.

The points help rank drivers ... and then I am comparing the relative strength of each driver against each other when they races together ... even if it is only 2-3 times for the whole year. As a result, you get a ranking. 

Notice that Chad Kemenah is currently third in the standings ... because of what he did in Florida, he gets a high ranking even though he does not travel with the WoO.



Wow... I applaud your efforts, if thats what you like to do. Sounds like a lot of work!

Some of us (me) do crosswords & Sodoku to exercise our failing minds...

Keep it up & lets see results at end of the year. Then we can have something to argue about during Silly Season (as if we needed any more! wink



revjimk
April 10, 2018 at 03:35:59 PM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7607
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https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/p/what-is-national-sprint-car-championship.html

Are you a mathematician? Retired Math teacher?

I'm too lazy to follow all that... but impressed



kevintoribert
MyWebsite
April 10, 2018 at 03:51:24 PM
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 16
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Reply to:
Posted By: revjimk on April 10 2018 at 03:35:59 PM

https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/p/what-is-national-sprint-car-championship.html

Are you a mathematician? Retired Math teacher?

I'm too lazy to follow all that... but impressed



Statistician - 30 years.


Kevin H.
https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/


alum.427
April 10, 2018 at 05:35:05 PM
Joined: 03/16/2017
Posts: 1603
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However this plays out. I will say it first.  Your top 10 will be 4+/- outlaw drivers 3 +/- all star racers with a 3+/- going to a knoxville, central pa or west coast driver that has had a really good year. I lean more to the pa, ohio, knoxville driver only because of logistics.  They get to run head to head with the WoO and all stars more so than the west coast guys.



revjimk
April 10, 2018 at 08:29:26 PM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7607
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Posted By: kevintoribert on April 10 2018 at 03:51:24 PM

Statistician - 30 years.



That explains it all. I'm curious to see how it comes out at season's end

Have you done this before?



oswald
April 10, 2018 at 11:26:31 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1991
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Really? Clyde Knipp is ranked ahead of Wayne Johnson & Brooke Tatnell? Sorry but everytime I've seen him he is just lapped traffic. But if you have fun doing this go ahead. To each his own. Don't think I'll put much stock in your results.




kevintoribert
MyWebsite
April 10, 2018 at 11:32:35 PM
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 16
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Posted By: revjimk on April 10 2018 at 08:29:26 PM

That explains it all. I'm curious to see how it comes out at season's end

Have you done this before?



Nope!


Kevin H.
https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/

oswald
April 10, 2018 at 11:34:12 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1991
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In your first example Kevin gets a 1st and 2nd and Nancy gets a 1st and DNS and if that were all the races in a season Nancy would be champion?????? Shouldn't Nancy get knocked down for only running 1 of 2 races? Looks like a guy like Lance DeWeese in a car that wins a bunch but does not race as often as most has the inside line on being your Champion.



kevintoribert
MyWebsite
April 11, 2018 at 12:55:27 AM
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 16
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Reply to:
Posted By: oswald on April 10 2018 at 11:34:12 PM

In your first example Kevin gets a 1st and 2nd and Nancy gets a 1st and DNS and if that were all the races in a season Nancy would be champion?????? Shouldn't Nancy get knocked down for only running 1 of 2 races? Looks like a guy like Lance DeWeese in a car that wins a bunch but does not race as often as most has the inside line on being your Champion.



Good question! Your hypothesis vs. my hypothesis will be tested this year, and we'll see what happens. Right now, Chad Kemenah is being given "extra credit" even though he has only raced a handful of times compared to WoO regulars. We'll see what happens once drivers have logged 25+ races.

Everybody out here has good points and valid criticisms. I may add a additional three series per reader feedback, and then I'll see what happens with the methodology. Thanks for the feedback all, good or bad.


Kevin H.
https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/


oswald
April 11, 2018 at 04:54:54 PM
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 1991
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This kind of trying to determine who is best among drivers who do not often compete head to head always makes me think of collage football rankings. Iowa beats Ohio State, Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan beats Penn State then Penn State beats Iowa. Who is ranked highest?

 

That's why (to me) the NCAA basketball tourney is best. It is decided on the court. Win & advance lose & go home.



SprintFan16
MyWebsite
April 11, 2018 at 07:46:05 PM
Joined: 05/03/2007
Posts: 1612
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Reply to:
Posted By: oswald on April 11 2018 at 04:54:54 PM

This kind of trying to determine who is best among drivers who do not often compete head to head always makes me think of collage football rankings. Iowa beats Ohio State, Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan beats Penn State then Penn State beats Iowa. Who is ranked highest?

 

That's why (to me) the NCAA basketball tourney is best. It is decided on the court. Win & advance lose & go home.



I labsolutely love March Madness but it is far from determining what actually is the best team in the tournament, however, it's the purest way of trying to find an answer. Too much short term variance in that format. There's no good way to find it given you would need a sample size far too large than what is possible. 

OP, I like it. It may not be perfect but there is no method that comes close to being perfect. The parity in 410 racing has increased tenfold but I still think the eyeball test and a little common sense can help most deduce who is the best, but stuff like this always interests me personally and I always enjoy trying to quantify and rank drivers. Keep it up.



sprintfanatic
April 11, 2018 at 08:55:22 PM
Joined: 12/06/2004
Posts: 1014
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Posted By: Murphy on April 09 2018 at 04:42:52 PM

     That made me laugh. What's the plan if a sprint driver hops in a racer with fenders?



Suspended for one full season!




sprintfanatic
April 11, 2018 at 09:47:04 PM
Joined: 12/06/2004
Posts: 1014
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Posted By: kevintoribert on April 10 2018 at 10:55:03 AM

What tracks would you like to see included? I'll consider adding them ...



I have not seen this yet for 2018, but it was posted for 2017:

The following is the 2017 410 races that I have compiled. Compiled by Bill Vanselow

It should include all tracks that run 410 winged sprints on a regular basis, I do not know what the cutoff number is, but it looks like every track with over 14 races.

These are the 2017 numbers that I could find:

Track Races
Williams Grove 33
Port Royal 31
Lincoln 31
River Cities 21
Wayne County 20
Lernerville 20
Butler 20
St. Francois County 19
Attica 19
Silver Dollar 18
Mercer 17
Fremont 16
Atomic 14

 



kevintoribert
MyWebsite
April 11, 2018 at 11:25:18 PM
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 16
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Reply to:
Posted By: sprintfanatic on April 11 2018 at 09:47:04 PM

I have not seen this yet for 2018, but it was posted for 2017:

The following is the 2017 410 races that I have compiled. Compiled by Bill Vanselow

It should include all tracks that run 410 winged sprints on a regular basis, I do not know what the cutoff number is, but it looks like every track with over 14 races.

These are the 2017 numbers that I could find:

Track Races
Williams Grove 33
Port Royal 31
Lincoln 31
River Cities 21
Wayne County 20
Lernerville 20
Butler 20
St. Francois County 19
Attica 19
Silver Dollar 18
Mercer 17
Fremont 16
Atomic 14

 



Much appreciated, thank you!


Kevin H.
https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/

revjimk
April 12, 2018 at 03:44:20 AM
Joined: 09/14/2010
Posts: 7607
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Reply to:
Posted By: oswald on April 11 2018 at 04:54:54 PM

This kind of trying to determine who is best among drivers who do not often compete head to head always makes me think of collage football rankings. Iowa beats Ohio State, Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan beats Penn State then Penn State beats Iowa. Who is ranked highest?

 

That's why (to me) the NCAA basketball tourney is best. It is decided on the court. Win & advance lose & go home.



Exactly!

My favorite sporting event by the way....




kevintoribert
MyWebsite
April 12, 2018 at 06:05:19 PM
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 16
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Given all of your feedback, I added tracks and series where possible (and my free time permits me to do so).

Current standings are reflected here, as are the changes to the schedule (adding PA tracks and OH series and a few others):  https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/

Visit that page and sign up to get email updates.

Thanks for your help!

Kevin


Kevin H.
https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/

Murphy
April 13, 2018 at 07:55:16 PM
Joined: 05/26/2005
Posts: 3293
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Reply to:
Posted By: kevintoribert on April 09 2018 at 12:03:09 PM

Let me know what you think of this approach ... https://www.nationalsprintcarchampionship.com/ ... I won't get offended if you don't like it. I plan on updating the standings at least once a week. Think of the standings as a "College Basketball RPI" for 410 Winged Touring Sprint Car Series.

Thanks,

Kevin



     I followed the link expecting to see a detailed explanation of how you were going to figure the points but I really didn't find that. What am  I missing?





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